Historic (1960 – 2015) capacity factors (red) and SO2 (blue) and black carbon (black) emissions in China as a percentage of peak emissions in 1994 and 2005 respectively. Thin lines are annual, thick lines 5-year moving mean values. Adapted from Sweerts, Pfenninger, Yang, Folini, van der Zwaan and Wild (2019).
Using solar radiation data from 119 stations across China we show that photovoltaic electricity potential decreased on average by 11–15% between 1960 and 2015. Given the observed relation between surface radiation and emissions of sulphur dioxide and black carbon, reducing air pollution should let surface radiation increase. Reverting back to 1960s radiation levels could yield a 12–13% increase in China’s solar electricity generation. → Sweerts, Pfenninger, Yang, Folini, van der Zwaan and Wild (2019), Nature Energy.